The cloudy crystal ball

As a new year starts, we turn the page on one of the most challenging years for businesses small or large. Its hard to tell, now, where things will be headed in 2010, and what you can expect in your own businesses based on how overall economic health and trends will impact it.

My crystal ball seems to be cloudy - I see contradictory evidence all over the place. This past year has seen the independent small retailers in the downtown of my hometown devastated, with several high profile and long-time landmarks of the downtown retail scene finally unable to hang in any longer. Yet, I see a large number of my local clients in other industries thriving, enjoying the best years they have ever had. Indeed, my own financial controllership/tax business is up over 17%, having already billed the equivalent of my last fiscal year in just 10 months of this one.

From larger businesses around town, I see other signs of economic confidence that have been surprising. The local Mercedes dealership has recently opened a huge, glimmering new showroom (this is consistent with a presentation I heard in December where it was explained that after discount car-maker KIA, the next best performers during this economic downturn were luxury brands like Mercedes, BMW and Lexus). McDonald's just opened a new, larger location near my house and mothballed the one around the corner it replaced, surprising not only in the context of the economy but with respect to trends and views of fast food these days.

So, unfortunately, I have no better insight about 2010 for you at this point - my crystal ball seems clouded with uncertainty. But, then again, if it had of been providing me with all the right answers before now, I would be writing this from my beach side villa in the Caribbean......

No comments: